By BERRY CRAIG
AFT Local 1360
When one leader makes a pit stop in a NASCAR race, other frontrunners usually follow.
If you stay out too long on worn tires and running close to empty, you risk cutting a tire, running out of gas or losing a ton of track position to the cars that pitted for fresh rubber and fuel.
The same strategy will likely apply among Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls, according to a veteran party consultant. "If you wait too long, you run the risk of money drying up and donors getting behind a candidate or candidates who are already out there."
Attorney Gen. Andy Beshear "pitted" today, officially announcing he's a candidate for his father's old job. Democrat Steve Beshear was governor from 2007 to 2015.
The primary is next May, and the general election is a year from November.
Meanwhile, the next hat in the ring might belong to state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins. The longtime lawmaker "will make an announcement right before" the annual Fancy Farm political picnic, a source told Forward Kentucky, the Louisville-based political blog. The feed is Aug. 4.
"One or two others will jump in before Fancy Farm and another after that," the consultant predicted, but declined to name names.
Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and New Kentucky Project co-founder and former state auditor Adam Edelen are often mentioned as other potential candidates. But state Rep. Attica Scott, D-Louisville, is seriously mulling a run for governor, too, according to Payday Report.
The Kentucky State AFL-CIO endorsed Beshear, Grimes, Edelen and Scott in previous elections.
Historically, candidates for governor from one part of Kentucky tap running mates from other sections of the state to balance the ticket and broaden their appeal.
But 2018 has been called "the year of the woman" and "the year of the teacher." Beshear, who lives in Lexington, chose Jacqueline Coleman of Mercer County as his lieutenant governor. Both are central Kentuckians, though she's an educator--an assistant principal at Nelson County High School.
Adkins, says Forward Kentucky, might be set to blend precedent with current political trends. He's an eastern Kentuckian, from Sandy Hook. But Adkins "is considering a Louisville school board member as his running mate," according to the blog.
In any event, the consultant warned all Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls "to keep their eyes on 2018. They're going to need at least one chamber to work with if they hope to accomplish anything."
Another anonymous Democratic source agreed. "We need to stay focused on the 2018 elections. We need to take back the state House and Senate, otherwise in 2020 the Republicans will be in total control of the required redistricting process and will do their best to gerrymander the Democratic Party into oblivion."
Added the party activist: "The very last thing we need right now is for 3 or 4 people to formally announce for governor and thereby take up a lot of the focus and energy when we have a number of great candidates running in 2018 elections that are so vitally important."
He cited then-Attorney Gen. Jack Conway, the Democratic candidate for governor in 2015. Conway announced his bid in May, 2014, six months before the voters went to the polls to choose between Sen. Mitch McConnell and Grimes, his Democratic opponent, as well as cast ballots for U.S. House and state House and Senate candidates.
Gov. Matt Bevin defeated Conway. Grimes and Beshear were the only Democratic constitutional officers who survived the GOP tide, which turned into a tsunami in 2016. The Republicans grabbed a majority in the state House for the first time since 1921.
"We ended up with Bevin and his horrible policies and a severely weakened Democratic Party," the source said. "I do not believe that any of us want a repeat of that history."
The Republicans enjoy hefty majorities in both chambers--27-11 in the Senate and 63-37 in the House. On Nov. 6, all 100 state House seats and half the 38 Senate seats will be up for election.