From Wolves and Sheep: Is the Trump Presidency unsustainable?

And what does it mean if it is?
JUN 20, 2025
Photo by Kier in Sight Archives on Unsplash
At some point, reporters may begin to notice that Donald Trump has lost the country, and his impulse to divert attention from his failures by escalating conflict isn’t working.
Polling from the past few days suggests that the plateau in Trump’s public decline is over, and he is again on a downward trajectory. Here are results from surveys of his job approval released between June 15-17. They consistently show that a majority of the country disapproves of his performance:
- Morning Consult: -6 (46% approve-52% disapprove)
- Economist/YouGov: -9 (45%-54%)
- NBC News: -10 (45%-55%)
- Reuters/Ipsos: -12 (42%-54%)
- Strength in Numbers: -14 (42%-56%)
The Strength in Numbers polling aggregate shows that across polls Trump has an average ten point deficit, with 43% of the public approving his performance and 53% disapproving.
Numbers like these warn of political danger ahead. Numbers like these so early in a presidency could prove to be unsustainable.
Below the hood, polling on individual issues is just as bad or even worse, with a majority of the country disapproving Trump’s performance on just about everything—from inflation and the economy to health care and foreign policy (Trump only receives positive ratings for his approach to border security, although notably not his approach to deportation or immigration).
The same applies to his deployment of troops to Los Angeles in response to the immigration protests there. Trump’s response to the L.A. situation came at a time when he desperately needed to deflect from the public feud he was having with Elon Musk. So he did what he has done in the past when facing an unfavorable situation or embarrassing defeat—change the subject by doing something outrageous that is guaranteed to divert attention from his latest failure or embarrassment. And if it involves immigration—which Trump sees as his greatest strength—all the better.
This time, however, he escalated with a show of military force, which is the most serious and frightening kind of escalation possible. The public didn’t like it.
Rather than brandish his image as a strongman, Trump’s move was rejected as overreach by a country with clear preferences for the judicious use of federal power. A June 10 YouGov poll indicated the public rejected Trump’s actions by a 13-point margin. He may have pushed Musk out of the headlines, but he failed to rally people to his side.
This was followed in short order by Trump’s pathetic birthday parade that was intended as a display of military might but just turned out to be—sad.
If Trump can’t project strength in his commander-in-chief role, it is doubtful he can project it at all.
Then what?
We’re five months in to his second presidency and Trump has lost the thread.
Between the election and the inauguration, I wrote extensively about the importance of preventing Trump from establishing himself as an imposing figure. Now, after initially getting some law firms, universities and legacy media outlets to bend to his will, the strongman act isn’t working.
Although his administration has been doing genuinely frightening things, Trump has established himself as farcical and unhinged but not fearsome, and it is undercutting his authoritarian desires. The public has rejected his agenda. He looks like a buffoon on the world stage. No one outside his party is afraid of him.
Setting aside for a minute that no other politician would attempt the things that Trump routinely does, any other politician in this situation would have started making corrections long ago.
But there is nothing else in Trump’s toolkit. This is it.
Don’t expect him to make any changes. In fact, expect him to hit the gas on his destructive and self-destructive actions.
Because our political system does not allow for early elections, we are stuck with an administration that is moving against the wishes of the country, determined to pursue its agenda with a toxic blend of cruelty and incompetence.
And because congressional Republicans are the only ones who are genuinely afraid of him, Trump is likely to continue on well past the point where other administrations would have started swimming back in the direction of public opinion.
This means we can expect Trump to keep acting out and escalating, possibly by trying to extend his military gambit to other cities. The most likely result if he does will be further isolation from the country. Over time, opposition to this administration is likely to broaden and deepen, building up until the next time voters have a chance to release their anger at the polls.
It’s too soon to predict what that might look like or how Trump’s party will respond. That is a story for next year. But what we can say with some certainty at this point is that the more Trump divides himself from the country, the greater the fallout will be for his party.
It still may not be enough to separate Republicans from their MAGA leader. Perhaps nothing will. But it could be enough to hand Democrats legislative power and the opportunity to change the unsustainable dynamics of this difficult and dangerous era.